In its October 2019 market report, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projects that world coffee production will decrease in coffee year 2019/20.
Production is estimated at 167.4 million 60-kilogram bags, 0.9 per cent lower than the prior year. Arabia output is expected to decrease by 2.7 per cent to 95.68 million bags, while Robusta production is expected to rise by 1.5 per cent to 71.72 million bags.
South America’s production is expected to fall by 3.2 per cent to 78.08 million bags, due largely to the decline in Brazil’s Arabica output in its off-year of the biennial crop cycle.
Production from Asia and Oceania is projected to grow by 1.9 per cent to 49.58 million bags due largely to a recovery in Indonesia’s output while Vietnam is expected to remain stable.
Central America and Mexico could see an increase of 0.9 per cent to 21.54 million bags while Africa’s output is estimated to decline by 0.6 per cent to 18.2 million bags.
World coffee consumption growth is likely to slow in 2019/20, in line with slower growth expected for the global economy, but demand is still projected to increase by 1.5 per cent to 167.9 million bags.
Meanwhile, the ICO composite indicator edged downward in October 2019 to 97.35 US cents per pound, decreasing 0.4 per cent from September 2019. It ranged between 93.63 US cents per pound and 101.56 US cents per pound, only exceeding 100 US cents per pound on 1, 3, and 31 October.
The ICO says the market is currently well-supplied as Brazil has completed the harvest of its 2019/20 off-year crop, which fills the gap before the output from the October-September producers reaches the market.